Pitches, Balls and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Decided

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|